Oscar predictions
Well, friends and enemies, another successful awards season is about to come to a close with the 98th annual Academy Awards this Sunday—which Timothee Chalamet will open by singing “Vesti la giubba” from Pagliacci in full clown drag before being led away from the stage in handcuffs. I’ve written at length about how I’m feeling about awards season this year, for movies, regrettably and for Famous and Beloved Newsletter, so let’s not belabor the issue: here are my predictions.
Picture
Everyone will tell you it’s a two picture race between One Battle After Another and Sinners, and I agree. The stats quite firmly predict the former, winning all three of the precursor awards which most closely predict Best Picture: Best Film at the British Academy Film and Television Awards (BAFTA), the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Picture from the Producers Guild of America (PGA), and Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film from the Directors Guild of America (DGA)1.
Despite this, I have been saying since I first saw Sinners, since long before One Battle After Another was even privately screened, that Sinners would win Best Picture and One Battle After Another would win Best Director. Stubbornly, I am sticking with this prediction, regardless of the evidence to the contrary. I think both films are great, worthy winners; One Battle is going to take it, but I am still “predicting” Sinners. It actually only has to make sense to me for me to do it.
Will win: Sinners
Here is how I would personally rank the ten films nominated for Best Picture:
Great tier:
Sinners
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Good tier:
The Secret Agent
Hamnet
Bugonia
F1
Fine tier:
Sentimental Value
Frankenstein
Train Dreams
Director
This one seems to be no contest for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, and I am not bucking conventional wisdom here. He is one of the great living American directors and has never won, and I will not begrudge him his long overdue flowers, even though I would rank this film in the lower half of his filmography.
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Should win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Actor in a Leading Role
Excitingly, this is one of the tougher categories to predict this year. Two months ago, it was all but sewn up for Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme, but then he lost both the Screen Actors Guild’s (SAG) Actor Award and the BAFTA. What a nightmare for Club! And then he said something about ballet which idiots are pretending matters. While I am not confident in this selection, I do think he will still win the award over Michael B. Jordan in Sinners, who seems to be the favorite after his Actor Award win. Wagner Moura is a potential upset for his great work in The Secret Agent, a fellow Best Picture nominee. Leonardo DiCaprio is wonderful in One Battle and I found Ethan Hawke to be laughably ludicrous in Blue Moon but he does manage to find some real authentic human emotion in it toward the end. Put him on a rocket and shoot him to the real blue moon in lieu of an award, though.
Will win: Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Should win: I don’t really care, probably Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another—he deserves an Oscar for Jester Mode Leo
Actress in a Leading Role
The easiest award of the night to predict: Jessie Buckley will win for Hamnet, her first performance that didn’t make me viscerally annoyed. The fact that I felt neutrally about this performance means people who already think she is a good actor must have been totally blown away by this work.2 I keep thinking of James Cameron’s interview on The Town podcast where he brings this performance up without prompting when discussing what human artists can do that A.I. can never replicate—insane! Anyway, I think Rose Byrne is always really spectacular and I thought this was Emma Stone’s best work, possibly ever, certainly since The Favourite. Renate Reinsve is sort of a nonentity to me; deport her back to Sweden or whatever. And Kate Hudson is The Creature.
Will win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Should win: Emma Stone, Bugonia
Actor in a Supporting Role
It’s Sean Penn. I have thought it was Sean Penn since I saw One Battle After Another but the film critics of online think that it matters to awards voters that someone is an abuser, and they think Benicio Del Toro is a much cuddlier choice, so no one wanted to admit that it was always Sean Penn’s to lose, which swayed the discourse away from him until he won the only two precursors that matter. Still, many people think he will lose. Okay.
Will win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Should win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Actress in a Supporting Role
Another category with a real race! Fun! There are arguments to be made that Amy Madigan in Weapons, Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners, and Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another could all be the winner. I think Taylor has the most stacked against her—the character is perhaps too morally complex for the average Academy voter, and she lost both the BAFTA and the Actor Award. Those two awards were taken by Mosaku and Madigan, respectively, and you can sort of argue whichever way you feel like with equal veracity. While I typically #BetOnBAFTA when there is a split with the guild award, I think Madigan ultimately takes it. There’s a 1:1 comparison to make with Ruth Gordon in Rosemary’s Baby which I think is the winning argument—the only difference there is Rosemary was also nominated for its screenplay, while Madigan is the sole nominee for Weapons. And Mosaku is in the most nominated film of all time… I don’t know! I keep going and forth.
Will win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Should win: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
There’s no contest in either writing category: the two frontrunners for Best Picture will each take one home. Although, it would be nice to see Marty Supreme get a little love here, especially if Chalamet does lose… Please not Blue Moon, though, I will have to kms… It Was Just an Accident would be a great winner here as well, and perhaps my ideal choice.
Will win: Sinners
Should win: It Was Just an Accident
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Basically, I think there is only one nominee worthy of winning this category this year. What went on here?
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: One Battle After Another
Animated Feature Film
I have seen exactly zero of these films, but I have a gut hunch that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will only be giving KPop Demon Hunters one award, and it’s not this one. Here, I think they will be rewarding the theatrical behemoth Zoo2pia, which is what it should have been called in the first place.
Will win: Zootopia 2
Could win: KPop Demon Hunters
Casting
It is the first time this award has ever been given and I have seen a lot of pundits completely misunderstand how this is supposed to be voted on. It is not the same as a “best ensemble” award. Each of the nominees put together a presentation of some kind highlighting what work they did and didn’t do. For instance, Michael B. Jordan is not in Sinners because of any work that Francine Maisler did—he is friends and prior collaborators with Ryan Coogler, who wrote the role for him. Her presentation would thus point this out, along with other specifics that represent what she actually brought to the film. In theory, members are voting with the entire process in mind. I feel that casting is a highly misunderstood profession, and I am glad there is now an award for it.
Will win: Sinners
Should win: Marty Supreme
Cinematography
One Battle After Another has won the important precursors, though many wonder if Sinners will win because of woke. I think Train Dreams had the most beautiful cinematography, but to me, that’s different than “best.” “Best” is what movie had the images that tell the story the best. I would say One Battle, Sinners, and Marty are all deserving on that definition—ultimately I just like Darius Khondi, I think.
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: Marty Supreme
Costume Design
Many have scoffed that Avatar: Fire and Ash is a nominee in this category since the costumes are digital—buddy, it’s costume design not costume execution. Frankenstein is the clear winner here, because the Academy has gone ballistic for The Creature.
Will win: Frankenstein
Should win: Sinners
Documentary Feature
Haven’t seen any of these either. Conventional wisdom is saying The Perfect Neighbor is going to win it but you know what? No guts no glory. I’m predicting the BAFTA winner again.
Will win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Could win: The Perfect Neighbor
Film Editing
Another race that to me seems sewn up by the probable Best Picture winner One Battle After Another. F1 is a movie that people keep predicting despite it having no heat. It is simply “most editing.” If it had won even one precursor that mattered, maybe I would buy it. I do not understand why anyone is possibly predicting F1 here.
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: One Battle After Another
International Feature Film
A lot of people want to believe that The Secret Agent might pull this off, but I think it’s pretty clear that the film nominated for both Picture and Director3 is going to take it—Sentimental Value. Good luck with booking that award you speak of @Brazil.
Will win: Sentimental Value
Should win: The Secret Agent
Music (Original Score)
It would appear that Sinners has this one locked up, which is interesting to me—I can remember the songs/musical numbers in the film, but I have basically no memory of the score. I remember Bugonia and I remember One Battle After Another, but both of those are probably too challenging for the average voter.
Will win: Sinners
Should win: One Battle After Another
Music (Original Song)
This is where I think the Academy will deign to award KPop Demon Hunters for the smash hit song “Golden.” Most of the songs nominated this year are not real, but I would vote for the one other real song, “I Lied to You” from Sinners.
Will win: “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters
Should win: “I Lied to You,” Sinners
Production Design
Another one that Frankenstein seems to have in the bag. Much like Wicked, they built everything practically but you can’t tell because the cinematography is so bad. What a waste! Hamnet was nominated despite it being set entirely in the nooks and crannies of various trees and shrubs in the woods. I think Sinners would be a great choice here, but really I thought it was finally going to be Jack Fisk’s year to win an Oscar for his tremendous work on Marty Supreme. Brady Corbet could have made seven movies with Marty Supreme’s budget, but because of that inflated cost, Fisk got to have a lot of fun recreating 1950s New York City and beyond from a full 360 degrees, and that’s okay with me.
Will win: Frankenstein
Should win: Marty Supreme
Sound
This is one where I think “Most Sound” does become “Best Sound”—F1 will reign victorious. Often, the blockbuster choice does lose in technical categories for the artier choice, so an upset by Sinners or Sirat (both music movies, often awarded in this category) but F1 has won the guild award and the BAFTA, so I don’t anticipate that losing here.
Will win: F1
Should win: Sirat
Visual Effects
Never bet against big Jim.
Will win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
The Various Short Film Categories
The lion does not concern himself with predicting the shorts categories.
Well, that’s all folks. What are your thoughts? What was your favorite awards-related scandal this year? What nominated movie did you just hate? Did you miss Karla Sofía Gascón as much as I did? Her late-breaking Instagram post weighing in on The Timothee Situation made it all worth it, to me.
And for next year: let the games begin!
Notably the latter is more often predictive of Best Picture than it is of Best Director, but only marginally.
Her work in The Bride! (now in theaters) is her first performance that I would say is not merely neutral but net positive.
The Secret Agent is only nominated for Best Picture.
Does Club even care anymore...