These are my Oscar predictions!
Things have been annoying and boring lately so I haven't had anything to write about. But now we can predict the Oscars!
The Oscars are two sleeps away! As Richard Brody said on the New Yorker’s Instagram Reel “it’s always nice to watch the Oscars even when the show isn’t great and even when the movies being celebrated aren’t great.” Or something. I am not gonna go back and transcribe an Instagram reel.
So here are my predictions!
Best Picture
Ten nominees are too many. There always are, I don’t know, maybe four movies that are really in it to win it. I’m a staunch proponent of returning to the five nominees for Best Picture. My feeling about Everything Everywhere All At Once are well documented but it is pretty clear that it will most likely win. I don’t think it’s as done as many of the Oscar bloggers do, mainly because it only won a single award at the BAFTAs and I think these institutions are a lot more aligned than most people think. So I think All Quiet on the Western Front, which won Best Film at the BAFTAs, is right at EEAAO’s heels. But also, Tár overperformed in the nominations, Top Gun: Maverick is an opportunity to give The Man Who Saved The Movies an Oscar, and The Banshees of Inisherin is the hands-down favorite of people I talk to at work, which, for those of you who do not know me, is a major legacy Hollywood studio and this kind of informal poll has done well for my predictions in the past.
Anyway, none of the other nominees are in the running, which is a shame for us Baz Luhrmannators, but maybe someday he will get the respect he deserves.
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Director
I can’t believe we’ve lived so long that the year’s Steven Spielberg is too artistically challenging for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, but here we are. I put it this way because I find most industry folk completely misread the film, which is not as hagiographic as they think.
The fact that the Daniels did not win the BAFTA, where The Fabelmans was not nominated, makes me think that Spielberg low-key still could win the Oscar, but it’s unlikely. In a more stunning upset, I think Todd Field has, idk, a single digit percentage of chance of winning. Let’s call it a 3% chance of winning. Because Tár overperformed in the down ballot categories.
But I think the most obvious choice, the Daniels, will prevail, despite the fact that instead the white Daniel should be tried in an international court for his crimes against cinema.
Will Win: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
Best Actress
This category has been the subject of a lot of chatter. It’s Cate Blanchett v. Michelle Yeoh, we all know that. Here is what I think will happen: Cate Blanchett will win. The main reason is that the BAFTA acting winners, especially in lead, usually repeat. I don’t want to be a bitch but two years ago I said that Frances McDormand and Anthony Hopkins were for sure winning the Oscar and everyone scoffed. But I was right then and I think I am right again. When SAG and BAFTA go to two different actors, it goes to the BAFTA winner like 99% of the time. Also, like, Tár is simply not going home empty-handed. I really believe it. And what’s the main thing to award about Tár? Cate’s performance. All due respect to Michelle, of course, who I think is a great actor when she is not being directed by the Daniels. Anyway, congratulations to Ana de Armas, who would be a household name by now if it was the 1990s, but it’s not, so normal people don’t really know who she is, and she’s a real movie star.
Will Win: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Best Actor
Continuing with my BAFTA theory, I think Austin Butler will win for Elvis. It’s also a biopic, and he does wear a fat suit, and the Academy looooves makeup acting. That’s what real acting is, to many members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Brendan Fraser very well could win for The Whale but Elvis got more nominations, and higher profile nominations, so there’s more support there. I want Colin to win so bad, though. He’s the only nominee whose dick is part of our collective memory as a society. And he deserves it for that and his talent.
Will Win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Best Supporting Actress
This is probably the hardest call to make, and because of that, I will default to the BAFTA winner of Kerry Condon. It seemed like Angela Bassett would be unstoppable at the beginning of this awards season, but I think Marvel bias is what has held her back. Normally I would agree, but Angela Bassett is Angela Bassett. She should already have at least one Oscar. Who cares what she wins for? Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG which was wild. As always I’m happy for the fans but I have yet to see any work from her in her 40+ year career that would make a career win deserved. She might win, though. It’s always smart to bet on the dumbest win at the Oscars.
Will Win: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Supporting Actor
Here is where I break from repeating BAFTA winners, because I think Ke Huy Quan has the juice. And he’s really good! He’s the only element of EEAAO that works imo. It would be really funny if Barry Keoghan wins, though. I always root for comedy.
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
I’m not doing anymore categories but I think EEAAO and All Quiet will each win four awards, the big winners of the night. Guess what they are.